NEC ECC: Could the PM while making his own assessment have made assumptions which turn out to be incorrect, allowing for a new CE to be raised rather than going to adjudication

Not really, but he could evaluate what he believes the compensation event should have been in accordance with the contract. These are not subject to a revisit after implemented - only through adjudication.

PM assumptions come into play much earlier in the process. The PM states when requesting the quote what assumptions they should base the quote upon. Practically, I recommend if a Contractor is thinking of putting their own assumptions in a quote they should get the PM to agree them in writing before the quote goes in, or simply price the risk. Any such Project Managers assumptions can be revisited as a new CE (60.1(17))